Monday, August 30, 2010

My trick knee tells me when its gonna rain

First and foremost I must pause and wish my mom and dad a very happy anniversary. Yesterday, they celebrated their 40th year of marriage. Susan and I had the privelege of going to dinner with them on Saturday night, and it was so much fun. By the way, if you are ever in KC, I highly recommend Michael Smith's, the food was fantastic. The one show on television that I have programmed my DVR for is Top Chef on Bravo! The food was exactly what I imagined cutting edge, fine dining food to be.

I thought my Mom summed up their 40 years best when she wrote: ‎"8-29-70, Metropolitan Bapt. Church--fast forward 40 yrs, 5 children, 3 weddings, 5 grandchildren, 2 funerals later---we bear witness to God's faithfulness." I may not say it often enough, but I am who I am and am where I am because of my parents. Thank you, and may the next 40 years be even better.

Now for what's happening in the news...

I always laugh when I hear the "experts" on the news channels talking about the state of the economy, as they describe the statistical factors that point toward an improving job market or hint at deflationary pressures, etc. I laugh because all these geniuses need to do is call up a small business owner - particularly a dentist. I can tell you exactly how the economy is doing at any one moment in time by looking at my schedule. I would bet that if I graphed my last 24 months of production and then did an overlay of the last 24 months of economic indicators they would line up perfectly.

Right now, my patients are starting to exhibit the same cautionary signs that they did in '08 as this recession was first being acknowledged. The chief indicator for me is the patient who starts to complain about the 4 month perio maintenance interval because it isn't covered by insurance (even though it is probably cheaper than the cut and color they get every month in a salon).

Having a patient base that is 75% insurance also gives me an insight into the corporate world because my patients talk about rumors of layoffs or benefit cuts and that impacts their willingness to spend. So, much like a grandpa can tell you when it's going to rain because their knee gets sore, I can tell you that unless the Fed changes the capital requirements for banks - permitting them to start loaning money again to small businesses operating with small reserves, we are absolutely headed for a double dip recession.

This bit of happy news was brought to you by the letter "D" and the number "2". It is a scary time to be a small business owner but I still wouldn't do it any other way. Security is for sissies.

Film at 11.

Have a great week!

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I called my financial adviser and asked him if I can take all my money out of my 401k and put it in "the bank". I feel it coming too.
I told him I would rather it just sit there then watch it plummet.

I was listening to Obama's big economy speech today and was waiting for something earth shattering and of course we got the same old rhetoric, "The republicans are holding up a bill that could change everything for small business."
Is it 2012 yet?
Now I am ready for a change.


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